October Rain Outlook: What the National Center for Meteorology Has Said

The National Center for Meteorology (NCM) expects October rainfall to be above the seasonal average across most of the Kingdom. Here is a plain summary of the outlook, what a seasonal forecast can and cannot tell you, and where to find official day-to-day forecasts and alerts.

Last checked: Monday 5 October 2026 (Asia/Riyadh). Infosaudia is an independent information site and is not connected to NCM. For official forecasts and warnings, always use NCM’s own channels (links below).

What NCM has said about October

The Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported on 17 September 2026 that NCM forecast rainfall above seasonal averages across most regions of the Kingdom in October. SPA added that climate indicators suggest the rain could continue into November (SPA).

NCM spokesperson Hussein Al-Qahtani said the outlook covers all 13 regions, and that rainfall amounts will vary from area to area (SPA).

Al-Qahtani also said NCM will issue more detailed bulletins, giving timing and the areas affected, as the dates get closer. He urged the public to follow official meteorological reports (SPA).

What the NCM seasonal outlook shows

NCM’s climate outlook for August–October 2026 is published on the center’s website (NCM outlook, PDF). For October, our paraphrase of the document is:

• Most of the Kingdom has a higher-than-average chance of rain. NCM puts this probability at roughly 40% to 80%, depending on the area.
• Some areas are expected to be around average. These include parts of the south-west of the Eastern Province and parts of northern and southern Najran.
• Rain may be heavy to very heavy in places. The outlook says even higher intensity cannot be ruled out in some areas.

The outlook also advises people to follow NCM’s short-range forecasts and early warnings (NCM outlook, PDF).

Seasonal outlook vs daily forecast: what’s the difference?

In plain English

A seasonal outlook describes chances over a whole month across wide areas. For example, “rain is more likely than usual in October”. It is not a day-by-day forecast. It cannot tell you whether it will rain in your neighbourhood on a particular day, and it does not capture unusual weather events precisely.

For what to expect today or this week, and for any warnings, use NCM’s short-range forecasts and early-warning service.

Practical tips while the outlook is wetter than usual

• Check the NCM early-warning page or the Anwaa app before long drives, outdoor work or family trips.
• If a warning is active for your area, follow the instructions from NCM and the relevant authorities — Infosaudia does not issue its own safety advice.
• Allow extra time for travel when rain is forecast; roads can flood quickly in low-lying spots.
• For life-in-the-Kingdom practical guides and checked job listings, start from the InfoSaudi homepage or our Jobs page.

Where to follow official forecasts and alerts

• NCM early warnings: ncm.gov.sa/en/early-warning
• NCM website (forecasts and bulletins): ncm.gov.sa/en
• NCM’s Anwaa app: Anwaa application page

If NCM or the relevant authorities issue a warning for your area, follow their official instructions. Treat this article as a summary of the seasonal outlook, not a substitute for the daily forecast.