Saudi rainfall outlook for October and November 2026
The Saudi rainfall outlook for October and November 2026 points to a wetter than usual autumn: the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) expects above-average rain across most regions, according to Saudi Gazette (9 October 2026).
For Makkah residents, see this rain and flash-flood safety guide.
October: above-average rain in most regions
For October, the NCM gives a probability of up to 80% that rainfall will be above average across most of the Kingdom, including the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf coasts. Rain is expected to range from moderate to heavy. It could turn very heavy in Tabuk, Madinah, Al-Baha, Asir, Al-Jouf, Hail, Qassim, the Northern Borders and Riyadh (except the southern part of the region), and in western Najran.
The centre said rainfall could become extremely heavy in Makkah, Jazan and the Eastern Province, except the southern part of the Eastern Province.
November: still wetter than normal
In November the chance of above-average rain over most of the country is put at 75%, with heavy to very heavy rain possible. The areas named include Makkah, Riyadh, Al-Baha, Asir, Jazan, Al-Jouf, the Northern Borders, Tabuk and the Eastern Province, plus most of Qassim and Hail and the northern and southern parts of Madinah.
December: rain closer to normal
By December, rainfall is expected to return to around normal across most of Saudi Arabia. Parts of the Eastern Province and Makkah may still see above-average rain, with probabilities of 40% to 50%.
Warmer than normal through December
The outlook expects above-average surface temperatures in every region for October, November and December. The average could be as much as 3°C above normal in October, easing to 2.5°C in November and 1.5°C in December. The largest rises are expected in parts of southeastern Makkah, eastern Al-Baha, most of Asir, northeastern Jazan, most of Najran, the south and southwest of the Eastern Province, and southern Riyadh.
What this means for trips and outdoor plans
This is a seasonal outlook, not a daily forecast, so check the NCM’s own warnings before a road trip or desert outing. If you are planning a visit to the north this season, our guide to visiting Ha’il covers the main sights, and the National Greening Season also began this month.
FAQ
Will October 2026 be rainier than usual in Saudi Arabia?
The NCM puts the probability of above-average rain across most regions at up to 80% for October.
Is heavy rain expected in Hail?
Yes. Hail is among the regions where October rain could become very heavy, and most of Hail is included in the November outlook.
How much warmer than normal will it be?
Up to 3°C above normal on average in October, 2.5°C in November and 1.5°C in December.
Source. Saudi Gazette, “Saudi Arabia forecasts above-average rainfall in October and November”, 9 October 2026, reporting the National Center for Meteorology outlook.
